~8
YEARS BEFORE HUMANS DEVELOP AGI
— METACULUS’ FORECAST
We do not endorse this forecast, or the use of the term AGI, but we take it as evidence that advanced AI is likely to transform our society over the next decade. Other indicators suggest the same—check back soon for new content expanding on this!
Radical Technological Progress is Poised to Reshape our World
Rapid AI progress is already transforming all aspects of society—from how we work to how we learn to how we will fight future wars. What we do to prepare for and manage this technological transformation in the coming years will determine the remainder of human history.
TFI was formed to work on developing novel foresight and forecasting techniques for anticipating the emergence of societal-scale risks from transformative technologies. Our mission is to ensure vibrant and prosperous futures for all of humanity, and while we perceive there to be many risks to humanity’s long-term prosperity, recent progress toward advanced AI appears to be the most pressing of these. As a result, our vision is to focus much of our work on risks from advanced AI, particularly on near-to-mid-term risks involving misuse and accidents from advanced AI, as well as on structural AI risks from advanced AI.
Featured Posts
An International Consortium for Evaluating Societal-Scale Risks from Advanced AI
One of TFI's core focus areas is on structural risks from advanced AI, and, structural risks emerge as the consequence of ignoring that the solution to a wicked problem must be constructed with consideration of the broader sociotechincal system in which the problem is...
Welcome to transformative.org!
The Transformative Futures Institute has officially launched our website on our new domain, transformative.org! At this stage things are still moving very quickly; we're in the process of hiring, moving forward with multiple research streams, and interacting with...